Demographics Aren’t Destiny

Since the 2012 election, there has been a lot of discussion of demographic shifts cementing the rising power of “liberals” and consigning conservatives to historical dustbins. The crudest (and most offensive) form of this argument assumes that Latinos in America only give a shit about their immigrant brethren, and that Democrats own the immigration issue. The more sophisticated version points to a new Democratic coalition of BEBOAC (Basically Everybody but Old Ass Crackers) voters ushering in a new multi-cultural, socially tolerant America. The problem with “demographics as destiny” exponents is that they falsely argue that demographic changes necessarily lead to policy changes, and that the new “majority coalition” signifies a major victory for the left.

American history is littered with examples of successful social movements that have no relation to changes in population. The Civil Rights movement didn’t happen because of a sudden influx of black people, Feminism didn’t rely on a jump in the female birthrate and today’s gay rights movement doesn’t rely on more gays. Movements live and die because of dedicated organizations of people successfully challenging status quo ideology and motivating large groups to support their struggle. Even the widespread working class unrest during the depression, which was fed by millions of newly poor people, was instigated by the labor unions, social democrats and communists.

Additionally, although the background of politicians certainly influences their voting, changing the face of a politician is not a way to challenge entrenched power structures. Alan Keyes, Marco Rubio, Margaret Thatcher and the history of post-colonial Africa aptly demonstrate that economic and political power can adapt to a rapid evolution in racial and gender norms/dynamics without fundamentally changing.

Multiculturalists, civil rights activists, feminists, gay rights activists and BEBOAC voters have made significant gains in the last few decades, but this leftist coalition has not succeeded at challenging entrenched financial and political elites. The traditional stream of progress has been forced to flow around these powerful interests, leading to increased economic inequality, declining worker power in the workplace, increased revolving door political corruption, greater influence of money on politics, an expansive surveillance state and a decline in economic opportunity for most Americans. A fall in the population share of white Americans will not change that.

Gini Source: Census Dept
Union Membership: BLS

Replacing white bankers with Latino bankers, or multimillionaire old whiteys with multimillionaire old black ladies won’t fundamentally change American power dynamics. The goal can’t be to just provide access to the existing system for everyone – the goal must be to change that system for everyone. What will signal a revival and potential victory for the Left is a mass movement led by popular organizations demanding freedom, opportunity and democracy for all in America’s workplaces, communities and corridors of political power.